Jordi Edens-Mitchell sits fifth in the world after Cheyenne Frontier Days with a projected $102,096.36 banked, and if rodeo’s old standings folklore holds true, that’s the number every bubble cowgirl needs to chase down before the NFBR field is set in December.
It’s one of rodeo’s oldest sayings, passed down arena to arena for generations: the dollar amount that is sitting fifth in the world after Cheyenne is roughly what it’ll take to make the Finals. Nobody can point to exactly where the number came from—it’s the kind of thing every veteran just seems to know—but it’s stuck around because it tends to hold up.
Lari Dee Guy, one of breakaway’s most respected veterans, has watched the number move over the years.
“I thought the number used to be a little lower than fifth, and I think it’s moved up the past few years because of all the money that’s been added,” Guy said. “But I think it’s pretty spot on.”
This Year’s No. 5
Edens-Mitchell added $2,627 to her season total this week, but it wasn’t enough to hold her ground—Cadee Williams and Rylee George both climbed past her, dropping Edens-Mitchell from No. 4 to No. 5. That’s the story of the summer so far: this pack is bunched so tight that standing still is the same as falling behind. Edens-Mitchell, Williams, George, Taylor Munsell and Josie Conner are separated by less than $6,500 in the No. 3 through No. 7 spots.
The Math for the Bubble
If the old wives’ tale holds, $102,000 is the number to beat for anyone trying to lock down a Top 15 spot by the end of the season. Guy landed on almost the same number independently.
“That was my thought—that it was going to take a hundred to make it,” Guy said.
Right now, Jill Tanner is holding down the bubble at projected No. 15 with $65,492.22, just ahead of Bradi Good at No. 16 with $63,137.08. That leaves Tanner roughly $36,600 short of Edens-Mitchell’s pace, and Good about $39,000 short—a gap that’s still closeable with the fall run still ahead. Guy doesn’t think the season’s biggest remaining paydays shift the dollar amount it will take to make it.
“It can jump somebody from 20th to 15th, but I don’t usually notice it changing the bottom number that much,” Guy said.
Editors note: all the standings are our projected world standings, will update with offical standings once they are published.
