crunching numbers

Mathematically, Who Has a Chance at the World Championship?

NFBR results through show a tightening World Championship race, with less than $11,000 separating the top three in the standings.

It's shaping up to be a tight World Standings race between Taylor Munsell, Josie Conner and Shelby Boisjoli-Meged.
It's shaping up to be a tight World Standings race between Taylor Munsell, Josie Conner and Shelby Boisjoli-Meged. BRJ File Photos

With five go-rounds and the average still on the table at the 2025 National Finals Breakaway Roping, the World Championship race is shaping up to be one of the tightest in recent memory.

NFBR results from rounds 1–5 sees less than $11,000 separating the top three in the world standings, and the remaining checks—both nightly and in the average—are more than enough to reshuffle the leaderboard.

As the second half of the NFBR unfolds, every catch carries weight, and every time could tip the balance of a gold buckle.

World Standings following Rounds 1–5 of NFBR Results

PlaceAtheleteEarnings
1Taylor Munsell $194,167
2Josie Conner $191,243
3Shelby Boisjoli-Meged $183,726

Go-Round Payouts

1st: $6,196.58
2nd: $5,128.20
3rd: $4,059.83
4th: $2,991.45
5th: $1,923.08
6th: $1,068.38

Average Payout

1st: $16,913.63
2nd: $13,722.38
3rd: $10,850.25
4th: $7,978.13
5th: $5,744.25
6th: $4,148.63
7th: $2,872.13
8th: $1,595.63

What the contenders need to do:

Taylor Munsell

Needs to rope smart, capitalize in go-rounds.

Munsell is farther down in the average than her peers, meaning she needs to rope sharp in the go-rounds to cushion herself enough to fend off late charges from Conner or Boisjoli-Meged.

Josie Conner

Needs to hold in the average

Currently $2,924 back from Munsell, Conner only needs to finish No. 4 in a go-round or better to surpass her. But to more safely secure a win, Conner should plan to pull and handful of checks in the go-rounds and maintain her average position.

Conner is No. 3 in the average with all five roped. If she can continue catching, a handsome average check may secure a World Championship.

Shelby Boisjoli-Meged

Needs to hustle.

Boisjoli-Meged is $10,441 back from Munsell, which equates to a go-round win and No. 2 in another. Much like Conner, though, Meged will need to pair go-round checks with average money.

Meged is currently No. 6 in the average with four of five head roped, which would pay $4,148.

With five rounds left to rope, the math is simple but the execution won’t be. Munsell holds the lead but can’t afford to give ground, Conner is positioned to strike with consistency, and Boisjoli-Meged still has a realistic path if she can pair speed with clean catches.

Between go-round money that rewards aggression and an average that favors steadiness, the final stretch of the NFBR will likely come down to who manages pressure best.

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